Leicester Judgment and Decision Making Research Group

Research Summary

Research in the multi-disciplinary Leicester Judgment and Decision Making research group includes formal models, laboratory and field experiments, agent-based simulations of judgment and decision making in artificial and everyday situations, including in the workplace, and the impact of individual differences and social contexts on these processes. Members of the group aim to carry out excellent research, to produce publications in high-impact journals, and to bid for grants in the research areas such as those listed among the current research themes below.

Judgment and Decision Making strand in the School of Psychology

See our seminar series times and dates 2020 (2019, 2018 and previous years).

Photos of the group.
Dedication of Sluckin Room 2017

Research themes

  • Advice giving and taking
  • Agency and structure effects on beliefs and behaviour
  • Agent-based simulation
  • Ambiguity aversion
  • Artificial Intelligence (trust and cooperation)
  • Bargaining Games and Verifiable Information
  • Behavioural economics
  • Causal and counterfactual thinking in children and adults
  • Centipede games
  • Communication and perception of confidence
  • Consumption and regulation
  • Cooperation
  • Decidability and undecidability
  • Emotions and regulation
  • Evolution of cooperation
  • Experimental games
  • Frugal heuristics in judgment and decision making
  • Game theory
  • Mental accounting
  • Moral judgment
  • Overconfidence
  • Quantum decision theory
  • Retail crime and loss prevention
  • Social decisions: networks and innovations
  • Team reasoning


Academic staff:


  • Benoit Bechard (Canada) (Psychology) 
    Visiting intern 2019
  • Dr Lindsay Browning (Honorary Fellow) (Psychology) 2020-2021
  • Eike Buabang (Leiden University) (Psychology) Erasmus trainee 2016
  • Jesica Gomez Sanchez (Granada University, Psychology) Visiting student 2019
  • Chengcheng Ma (Psychology) Visiting student 2019
  • Francesco Peana (Psychology) Visiting intern 2018
  • Amnon Rapoport (Universities of Arizona and California Riverside, Psychology) Visiting researcher 2014

Research students:


Research grants

Pulford, B.D., Colman, A.M., & Frosch, C.A.  (2019-2021) £39,064 (£214,045 FEC) awarded by the Leicester Judgment and Decision Making Endowment to study "Confidence and Reasoning in Decisions and Games".

Cole, A.N., Karton, J.D., Flood, J., Chattoe-Brown, E., Ortolani, P. & Ayton, P.  (2018-2023) £812,301 awarded by the ESRC to study “The Social and Psychological Underpinnings of Commercial Arbitration in Europe”.

Frosch, C.A. (2018-2019) £3,500 (£15,962 FEC) awarded by the Experimental Psychology Society to study "Maths and Reasoning Ability".

Tarrant, C., Colman, A. M., Chattoe-Brown, E., Jenkins, D., Perera, N., & Mehtar, S. £205,582 (£246,677 FEC) awarded by the Economic and Social Research Council to study "Antimicrobial resistance as a social dilemma: Implications for developing interventions to reduce the use of broad-spectrum antibiotics for acute medical patients in hospital settings internationally".

Pulford, B.D., Colman, A.M. & Frosch, C.A. (2016-2021) £10,000 awarded by the Leicester Judgment and Decision Making Endowment to fund the "LJDME Sluckin Studentship Award".

Pulford, B.D., Colman, A.M. & Frosch, C.A. (2016-2018) £26,039 (£134,293 FEC) awarded by the Leicester Judgment and Decision Making Endowment to study "Comparisons, Confidence, and Causality in Decision Making".

Frosch, C. A., (2013-2014). £2,500 awarded by the Experimental Psychology Society, Small Grants Scheme to study “Counterfactual Thinking and Regulatory Focus in Self/Other Decision Making”

Pulford, B. D. & Colman A.M. (2011-2016). £100,000 awarded by the Leicester Judgment and Decision Making Endowment Fund for research into "Coordination, Judgment, and Decision Making".

Gold, N., Colman, A. M., & Pulford, B. D. (2010–12). £151,216 awarded by the Arts and Humanities Research Council for a study of “Framing Effects in Ethical Dilemmas”. (Grant No. AH/H001158/1)

Dambacher, M. (2011-2012). €113,000 awarded by the Zukunftskolleg at the University of Konstanz, Germany for the project "Towards a time course of decision making: Incentive-based effects on electrophysiological correlates of selective attention"

Baker, R., Mellon, J., Colman, A. M., Steward, W., Kockelbergh, R., Sinfield, P., Tarrant, C., Crosbee, L.,& Sproston, K. (2004-2007). £347,291 awarded by the NHS Service Delivery and Organisation National R&D Programme for research into “Prostate Cancer Care: Improving Measures of Patient Experience".

Colman, A. M., & Pulford, B. D. (2009). £7,272 awarded by the Nuffield Foundation Social Sciences Small Grants Scheme for a study of “Evolution of Cooperation Through Similarity Recognition”.

Gilbert, N., & Chattoe-Brown, E. (2008-2011). £1.3m awarded by the Economic and Social Research Council for "SIMIAN (Simulation Innovation: a Node)".

Colman, A. M. (2005-2006). £2,600 awarded by the Royal Society of Edinburgh to study “Evolution of Cooperation Through Coordinated Turn-Taking”.

Colman, A. M., & Al-Nowaihi, A. (2004-2005). £12,054 awarded by the British Academy Larger Research Grants Scheme to study “Cooperation in Multi-Player Minimal Social Situations: An Experimental Investigation”.

Colman, A. M., Pulford, B. D., & Bolger, F. (2003-2005).£121,563 awarded by the Economic and Social Research Council for research into “Confidence in Interactive Decisions”.

Frosch, C. A. (2007). £85,556.80 (£104,264 FEC) awarded by the Economic and Social Research Council for a Postdoctoral Research Fellowship on "Cognitive processes in causal and counterfactual thinking".

Pulford, B. D. (2002-2005). £21,000 awarded by the University of Wolverhampton Studentship Fund for a postgraduate studentship on "The Communication and Influence of Confidence and Uncertainty"

Washington, R. Downing. T. E., Haxeltine, A., Bithell, M., New, M., & Chattoe, E. (2002-2005). £205,000 awarded by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.

Selected research papers

Aerts, D., d’Hooghe, B., & Haven, E. (2010). Quantum experimental data in psychology and economics. International Journal of Theoretical Physics, 49(12), 2971-2990.

al-Nowaihi, A., & Dhami, S. (2015). Evidential Equilibria: Heuristics and Biases in Static Games of Complete Information. Games, 6, 637-677.

al-Nowaihi, A., & Dhami, S. (2012). Hyperbolic Punishment Functions. Review of Law and Economics, 8(3), 759-787.

Álvarez-Mozos, M., Hellman, Z., & Winter, E. (2013). Spectrum value for coalitional games. Games and Economic Behavior Elsevier, 82, 132-142.

Beaman, C.P., Smith, P. T., Frosch, C.A., & McCloy, R. (2010). Less-is-more effects without the recognition heuristic. Judgment and Decision Making, 5, 258-271.

Beck, A. (2011). Self-scan checkouts and retail loss: Understanding the risk and minimising the yhreat. Security Journal, 24(3), 199-215.

Beck, A., & Palmer W. (2011). The importance of visual situational cues and difficulty of removal in creating deterrence: The limitations of electronic article surveillance source tagging in the retail environment. Journal of Applied Security Research, 6(1), 110-123.

Bolger, F., Pulford, B. D., & Colman, A. M. (2008). Market entry decisions: Effects of absolute and relative confidence. Experimental Psychology, 55(2), 113-120.

Chattoe-Brown, E. (2009). The Social transmission of choice: A simulation with applications to hegemonic discourse. Mind and Society, 8(2), 193-207.

Chattoe-Brown, E. (2012). Combining ethnography and game theory using simulation: A critique and development of "Can Norms Account for Strategic Interaction?" by S. Gezelius, Sociology, 46(2), 339-353.

Chattoe-Brown, E. (2014). Using agent based modelling to integrate data on attitude change. Sociological Research Online, 19(1).

Chattoe-Brown, E. (2013). Why sociology should use agent based modelling. Sociological Research Online, 18(3).

Chattoe, E. & Gilbert, N. (2001). Understanding consumption: What interviews with retired households can reveal about budgetary decisions. Sociological Research Online, 6(3), November.

Coleman, A. A., Colman, A. M., & Thomas, R. M. (1990). Cooperation without awareness: A multiperson generalization of the minimal social situation. Behavioral Science, 35, 115-121.

Colman, A. M., Browning, L., & Pulford, B. D. (2012). Spontaneous similarity discrimination in the evolution of cooperation. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 299, 162-171.

Colman, A. M., Körner, T. W., Musy, O., & Tazdaït, T. (2011). Mutual support in games: Some properties of Berge equilibria. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 55, 166-175.For more publications or full CV, use the panel on the left.

Colman, A. M., Pulford, B. D., & Krockow, E. M. (2018). Persistent cooperation and gender differences in repeated prisoner’s dilemma games: Some things never change. Acta Psychologica, (187), 1–8.

Colman, A. M., Pulford, B. D., & Lawrence, C. L. (2014). Explaining strategic coordination: Cognitive hierarchy theory, strong Stackelberg reasoning, and team reasoning. Decision, 1, 35-58.

Colman, A. M., Pulford, B. D., Omtzigt, D., & al-Nowaihi, A. (2010). Learning to cooperate without awareness in multiplayer minimal social situations. Cognitive Psychology, 61, 201-227.

Dambacher, M., & Hübner, R. (2013). Investigating the speed-accuracy tradeoff: Better use deadlines or response signals? Behavior Research Methods, 45, 702-717.

Dambacher, M., & Hübner, R. (2015). Time pressure affects the efficiency of early perceptual processing in decisions under conflict. Psychological Research, 79, 83-94.

Dambacher, M., Hübner, R., & Schlösser, J. (2011). Monetary incentives in speeded perceptual decision: Effects of penalizing errors versus slow responses. Frontiers in Psychology, 2, 248, 1-12.

David, M., Rohloff, A., Petley, J. & Hughes, J. (2011). The idea of moral panic: Ten dimensions of dispute. Crime, Media, Culture, 7(3), 215–228.

Dhami, S., & al-Nowaihi, A. (2013). An extension of the Becker Proposition to non-expected utility theory. Mathematical Social Sciences, 65(1) 10-20.

Dhami, S., & al-Nowaihi, A. (2010). The existence of a Condorcet winner when voters have other regarding preferences. Journal of Public Economic Theory, 12(5), 897-922.

Dzhafarov, E., Haven, E., Khrennikov, A., & Sozzo, S. (2015). Editors of the Special issue: ‘Quantum Theory: from Foundations to Technologies’. Journal of Mathematical Psychology. Forthcoming.

Eso, P., & Wallace, C. (2014). Information and evidence in bargaining. Economic Theory Bulletin, 2(1), 23-32.

Frosch, C.A., Beaman, C.P. & McCloy, R. (2007). A little learning is a dangerous thing: An experimental demonstration of ignorance-driven inference. ,The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 6(10), 1329-1336.

Frosch, C.A. & Byrne, R.M.J. (2012). Causal conditionals and counterfactuals. Acta Psychologica. 141, 54-66.

Frosch, C. A., McCormack, T., Lagnado, D. A. and Burns, P. (2012). Are Causal Structure and Intervention Judgments Inextricably Linked? A Developmental Study. Cognitive Science. 36, 261-285.

Frosch, C. A. & Johnson-Laird, P. N. (2011). Is everyday causation deterministic or probabilistic? Acta Psychologica. 137, 280 - 291.

Gold, N., Colman, A. M., & Pulford, B. D. (2014). Cultural differences in responses to real-life and hypothetical trolley problems. Judgment and Decision Making, 9(1), 65-76.

Gold, N., Pulford, B. D., & Colman, A. M. (2013). Your money or your life: Comparing judgments in trolley problems involving economic and emotional harms, injury and death. Economics and Philosophy, 29, 213-233.

Gold, N, Pulford, B. D., & Colman, A. M. (2015). Do as I say, don’t do as I do: Differences in moral judgments do not translate into differences in decisions in real-life trolley problems. Journal of Economic Psychology, 47, 50–61.

Griffiths, A. W., Wood, A. M., Maltby, J., Taylor, P. J., & Tai, S. (2014). The prospective role of defeat and entrapment in depression and anxiety: A 12-month longitudinal study. Psychiatry Research, 216, 52-59.

Hargreaves Heap, S., Arjona, D. R., & Sugden, R. (2014). How portable is Level-0 behaviour? A test of Level-k theory in games with non-neutral frames. Econometrica 82, 3,1133-1151.

Haven E. (2005). The financial relevance of fuzzy stochastic dominance: A brief note. Fuzzy Sets and Systems 15(3), 467-473.

Haven, E. (2008). Private Information and the ‘Information function. Theory and Decision, 64(2-3), 193-228.

Haven, E., & Khrennikov, A. (2013). Quantum-like tunnelling and levels of arbitrage. International Journal of Theoretical Physics, 52, 4083-4099.

Hughes, J. (2014). E-cigarettes and the "civilising" of smoking. Cambio, 4(7), 169–181.

Janczyk, M., Dambacher, M., Bieleke, M., & Gollwitzer, P. M. (2015). The benefit of no choice: Goal-directed plans enhance perceptual processing. Psychological Research, 79, 206-220.

Jones, S. A. M., & Thomas, R. M. (2013). Formal languages, word problems of groups and decidability. In P. A. Abdulla & I. Potapov (Eds.), Reachability problems ( (LNCS 8169, pp. , 146-158). Uppsala, Sweden: Springer-Verlag.

Jugureanu, A., Hughes, J., & Hughes, K. (2014). Towards a developmental sociology of happiness. Sociological Research Online, 19(2), 2. http://www.socresonline.org.uk/19/2/2.html

King, S. A. (1999). Chance, choice and calculation in the process of getting married. International Review of Social History, 44, 69-76.

King, S. A., & Shephard, M. (2012). Courtship and the remarrying man in late-Victorian England. Journal of Family History, 37, 319-40.

Krockow, E. M., Colman, A. M., & Pulford, B. D. (2016a). Cooperation in repeated interactions: A systematic review of Centipede game experiments, 1992–2016. European Review of Social Psychology, 27(1), 231–282.

Krockow, E. M., Pulford, B. D., & Colman, A. M. (2015). Competitive Centipede games: Zero-end payoffs and payoff inequality deter reciprocal cooperation. Games, 6(3), 262–272.

Lakin, S. R., &Thomas, R. M. (2004). Context-sensitive decision problems in groups. In C. S. Calude, E. Calude, & M. J. Dinneen (Eds.), Developments in language theory ( LNCS 3340, pp. , 296-307). Auckland, New Zealand: Springer-Verlag.

Lakin, S. R., & Thomas, R. M. (2009). Complexity classes and word problems of groups. Groups, Complexity and Cryptography 1, 261-273.

McCloy, R., Beaman, C.P., Frosch, C.A., & Goddard, K. (2010). Fast and frugal framing effects. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition. 36(4), 1043-1052.

Myatt, D., & Wallace, C. (2008). An evolutionary analysis of the volunteer's dilemma. Games and Economic Behavior, 62(1), 67-76.

Myatt, D., & Wallace, C. (2009). "Evolution, teamwork and collective action: Production targets in the private provision of public goods. The Economic Journal, 119(534), 61-90.

Pulford, B. D. (2009). Is luck on my side? Optimism, pessimism, and ambiguity aversion. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 62(6), 1079-1087.

Pulford, B. D., & Colman, A. M. (2008). Size doesn't really matter: Ambiguity aversion in Ellsberg urns with few balls. Experimental Psychology, 55(1), 31-37.

Pulford, B. D., Colman, A. M., Buabang, E. K., & Krockow, E. M. (2018). The persuasive power of knowledge: Testing the confidence heuristic. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Generalhttps://doi.org/10.1037/xge0000471

Pulford, B. D., Colman, A. M., Lawrence, C. L., & Krockow, E. M. (2017). Reasons for cooperating in repeated interactions: Social value orientations, fuzzy traces, reciprocity, and activity bias. Decision, 4(2), 102–122.

Pulford, B. D., Colman, A. M., & Loomes, G. (2018). Incentive magnitude effects in experimental games: Bigger is not necessarily better. Games, 9(1), 4.

Pulford, B. D., Krockow, E. M., Colman, A. M., & Lawrence, C. L. (2016). Social value induction and cooperation in the Centipede game. PLoS ONE, 11(3), 1–21, e0152352.

Rapoport, A., Seale, D. A., & Colman, A. M. (2015). Is tit-for-tat the answer? On the conclusions drawn from Axelrod’s tournaments. PLOS ONE, 10(7), e0134128.

van Damme, E., Binmore, K. G.. Roth, A., Samuelson, L., Winter, E., Bolton, G. E, Ockenfels, A., Dufwenberg, M., Kirchsteiger, G., Gneezy, U., & Kocher, M. G. (2014). How Werner Güth's ultimatum game shaped our understanding of social behaviour. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 108, 292-318.

Wallace, C., & Young, H. P. (2015). Stochastic evolutionary game dynamics. In H. P. Young and S. Zamir (Eds), The Handbook of Game Theory (Vol. 4, chap. 6, pp. 327-380). North Holland, Amsterdam.

Winter, E. (2009). Incentive reversal. American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, 1(2), pages 133-147.

Ziegelmeyer. A., Koessler, F., Bracht, J., & Winter, E. (2010). Fragility of information cascades: An experimental study using elicited beliefs. Experimental Economics, 13(2), 121-145.

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