Mark Rutherford

Associate Professor of Biostatistics

Biostatistics Research Group
Department of Health Sciences,
College of Life Sciences,
University of Leicester, George Davies Centre,
University Road, Leicester, LE1 7RH, UK
Tel: +44 116 229 7292

Personal details

BSc, MSc, PhD, FHEA.

I am an Associate Professor of biostatistics at the University of Leicester and also hold a visiting scientist position at the Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer. My main areas of interest are in methods for analysis population based registry data.


My research interests include:

  • methods for analysing population-based cancer data
  • relative survival methods
  • modelling and projecting cancer incidence
  • applications of relative survival approaches to cardiovascular disease
  • extrapolation of survival curves

A PhD student in our group (Sarwar Islam) has developed a web-based tool for understanding Cancer Survival measures:


Andersson, T.M.-L., Myklebust, T.Å., Rutherford, M.J., Møller, B., Soerjomataram, I., Arnold, M., Bray, F., Parkin, D.M., Sasieni, P., Bucher, O., De, P., Engholm, G., Gavin, A., Little, A., Porter, G., Ramanakumar, A.V., Saint-Jacques, N., Walsh, P.M., Woods, R.R., Lambert, P.C. "The impact of excluding or including Death Certificate Initiated (DCI) cases on estimated cancer survival: A simulation study". (2021) Cancer Epidemiology, 71, art. no. 101881, .

Smith, A.J., Lambert, P.C., Rutherford, M.J. "Understanding the impact of sex and stage differences on melanoma cancer patient survival: a SEER-based study"
(2021) British Journal of Cancer, 124 (3), pp. 671-677.

Syriopoulou, E., Rutherford, M.J., Lambert, P.C. "Understanding disparities in cancer prognosis: An extension of mediation analysis to the relative survival framework" (2021) Biometrical Journal, 63 (2), pp. 341-353.

Morgan, E., Soerjomataram, I., Gavin, A.T., Rutherford, M.J., Gatenby, P., Bardot, A., Ferlay, J., Bucher, O., De, P., Engholm, G., Jackson, C., Kozie, S., Little, A., Møller, B., Shack, L., Tervonen, H., Thursfield, V., Vernon, S., Walsh, P.M., Woods, R.R., Finley, C., Merrett, N., O'Connell, D.L., Reynolds, J.V., Bray, F., Arnold, M.  "International trends in oesophageal cancer survival by histological subtype between 1995 and 2014" (2021) Gut, 70 (2), pp. 234-242.

Araghi, M., Arnold, M., Rutherford, M.J., Guren, M.G., Cabasag, C.J., Bardot, A., Ferlay, J., Tervonen, H., Shack, L., Woods, R.R., Saint-Jacques, N., De, P., Mcclure, C., Engholm, G., Gavin, A.T., Morgan, E., Walsh, P.M., Jackson, C., Porter, G., Møller, B., Bucher, O., Eden, M., O'connell, D.L., Bray, F., Soerjomataram, I. "Colon and rectal cancer survival in seven high-income countries 2010-2014: Variation by age and stage at diagnosis (the ICBP SURVMARK-2 project)" (2021) Gut, 70 (1), pp. 114-126.

Lambert, P.C., Andersson, T.M.-L., Rutherford, M.J., Myklebust, T.Å., Møller, B. "Reference-adjusted and standardized all-cause and crude probabilities as an alternative to net survival in population-based cancer studies" (2020) International Journal of Epidemiology, 49 (5), pp. 1614-1623.

Welch, C.A., Sweeting, M.J., Lambert, P.C., Rutherford, M.J., Jack, R.H., West, D., Adlam, D., Peake, M. "Impact on survival of modelling increased surgical resection rates in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer and cardiovascular comorbidities: a VICORI study" (2020) British Journal of Cancer, 123 (3), pp. 471-479.

Rutherford, M.J., Dickman, P.W., Coviello, E., Lambert, P.C. "Estimation of age-standardized net survival, even when age-specific data are sparse" (2020) Cancer Epidemiology, 67, art. no. 101745, .

Booth, S., Riley, R.D., Ensor, J., Lambert, P.C., Rutherford, M.J. "Temporal recalibration for improving prognostic model development and risk predictions in settings where survival is improving over time" (2020) International Journal of Epidemiology, 49 (4), pp. 1316-1325.

Myklebust, T.Å., Andersson, T., Bardot, A., Vernon, S., Gavin, A., Fitzpatrick, D., Jerm, M.B., Rutherford, M., Parkin, D.M., Sasieni, P., Arnold, M., Soerjomataram, I., Bray, F., Lambert, P.C., Møller, B. "Can different definitions of date of cancer incidence explain observed international variation in cancer survival? An ICBP SURVMARK-2 study"
(2020) Cancer Epidemiology, 67, art. no. 101759, .

Syriopoulou, E., Rutherford, M.J., Lambert, P.C. "Marginal measures and causal effects using the relative survival framework" (2020) International Journal of Epidemiology, 49 (2), pp. 619-628.

Cabasag, C.J., Butler, J., Arnold, M., Rutherford, M., Bardot, A., Ferlay, J., Morgan, E., Møller, B., Gavin, A., Norell, C.H., Harrison, S., Saint-Jacques, N., Eden, M., Rous, B., Nordin, A., Hanna, L., Kwon, J., Cohen, P.A., Altman, A.D., Shack, L., Kozie, S., Engholm, G., De, P., Sykes, P., Porter, G., Ferguson, S., Walsh, P., Trevithick, R., Tervonen, H., O'Connell, D., Bray, F., Soerjomataram, I. "Exploring variations in ovarian cancer survival by age and stage (ICBP SurvMark-2): A population-based study" (2020) Gynecologic Oncology, 157 (1), pp. 234-244.

Tyrer, F., Kiani, R., Rutherford, M.J. "Mortality, predictors and causes among people with intellectual disabilities: A systematic narrative review supplemented by machine learning" (2020) Journal of Intellectual and Developmental Disability, .

Alabas, O.A., Jernberg, T., Pujades-Rodriguez, M., Rutherford, M.J., West, R.M., Hall, M., Timmis, A., Lindahl, B., Fox, K.A.A., Hemingway, H., Gale, C.P. "Statistics on mortality following acute myocardial infarction in 842 897 Europeans" (2020) Cardiovascular Research, 116 (1), pp. 149-157.

Andersson, T.M.-L., Rutherford, M.J., Myklebust, T.Å., Møller, B., Soerjomataram, I., Arnold, M., Bray, F., Parkin, D.M., Sasieni, P., Bucher, O., De, P., Engholm, G., Gavin, A., Little, A., Porter, G., Ramanakumar, A.V., Saint-Jacques, N., Walsh, P.M., Woods, R.R., Lambert, P.C. "Exploring the impact of cancer registry completeness on international cancer survival differences: a simulation study" (2020) British Journal of Cancer, .

Fernandez-Garcia, D., Hills, A., Page, K., Hastings, R.K., Toghill, B., Goddard, K.S., Ion, C., Ogle, O., Boydell, A.R., Gleason, K., Rutherford, M., Lim, A., Guttery, D.S., Coombes, R.C., Shaw, J.A. "Plasma cell-free DNA (cfDNA) as a predictive and prognostic marker in patients with metastatic breast cancer" (2019) Breast Cancer Research, 21 (1), art. no. 149, .

Wong, K.F., Lambert, P.C., Mozumder, S.I., Broggio, J., Rutherford, M.J. "Conditional crude probabilities of death for English cancer patients" (2019) British Journal of Cancer, 121 (10), pp. 883-889.

Arnold, M., Rutherford, M.J., Bardot, A., Ferlay, J., Andersson, T.M.-L., Myklebust, T.Å., Tervonen, H., Thursfield, V., Ransom, D., Shack, L., Woods, R.R., Turner, D., Leonfellner, S., Ryan, S., Saint-Jacques, N., De, P., McClure, C., Ramanakumar, A.V., Stuart-Panko, H., Engholm, G., Walsh, P.M., Jackson, C., Vernon, S., Morgan, E., Gavin, A., Morrison, D.S., Huws, D.W., Porter, G., Butler, J., Bryant, H., Currow, D.C., Hiom, S., Parkin, D.M., Sasieni, P., Lambert, P.C., Møller, B., Soerjomataram, I., Bray, F. "Progress in cancer survival, mortality, and incidence in seven high-income countries 1995–2014 (ICBP SURVMARK-2): a population-based study" (2019) The Lancet Oncology, 20 (11), pp. 1493-1505.

Andersson, T.M.-L., Rutherford, M.J., Lambert, P.C. "Illustration of different modelling assumptions for estimation of loss in expectation of life due to cancer" (2019) BMC Medical Research Methodology, 19 (1), art. no. 145, .

Rutherford, M.J., Andersson, T.M.-L., Björkholm, M., Lambert, P.C. "Loss in life expectancy and gain in life years as measures of cancer impact" (2019) Cancer Epidemiology, 60, pp. 168-173.

Bower, H., Andersson, T.M.-L., Syriopoulou, E., Rutherford, M.J., Lambe, M., Ahlgren, J., Dickman, P.W., Lambert, P.C. "Potential gain in life years for Swedish women with breast cancer if stage and survival differences between education groups could be eliminated – Three what-if scenarios" (2019) Breast, 45, pp. 75-81.

Syriopoulou, E., Morris, E., Finan, P.J., Lambert, P.C., Rutherford, M.J. "Understanding the impact of socioeconomic differences in colorectal cancer survival: potential gain in life-years" (2019) British Journal of Cancer, 120 (11), pp. 1052-1058.

Syriopoulou, E., Mozumder, S.I., Rutherford, M.J., Lambert, P.C. "Robustness of individual and marginal model-based estimates: A sensitivity analysis of flexible parametric models" (2019) Cancer Epidemiology, 58, pp. 17-24.

Bower, H., Crowther, M.J., Rutherford, M.J., Andersson, T.M.-L., Clements, M., Liu, X.-R., Dickman, P.W., Lambert, P.C. "Capturing simple and complex time-dependent effects using flexible parametric survival models: A simulation study" (2019) Communications in Statistics: Simulation and Computation, .

Coombes, R.C., Page, K., Salari, R., Hastings, R.K., Armstrong, A., Ahmed, S., Ali, S., Cleator, S., Kenny, L., Stebbing, J., Rutherford, M., Sethi, H., Boydell, A., Swenerton, R., Fernandez-Garcia, D., Gleason, K.L.T., Goddard, K., Guttery, D.S., Assaf, Z.J., Wu, H.-T., Natarajan, P., Moore, D.A., Primrose, L., Dashner, S., Tin, A.S., Balcioglu, M., Srinivasan, R., Shchegrova, S.V., Olson, A., Hafez, D., Billings, P., Aleshin, A., Rehman, F., Toghill, B.J., Hills, A., Louie, M.C., Lin, C.-H.J., Zimmermann, B.G., Shaw, J.A."Personalized detection of circulating tumor DNA antedates breast cancer metastatic recurrence" (2019) Clinical Cancer Research, 25 (14), pp. 4255-4263.

Mozumder, S.I., Dickman, P.W., Rutherford, M.J., Lambert, P.C. "InterPreT cancer survival: A dynamic web interactive prediction cancer survival tool for health-care professionals and cancer epidemiologists" (2018) Cancer Epidemiology, 56, pp. 46-52.

Mozumder, S.I., Rutherford, M., Lambert, P. "Direct likelihood inference on the cause-specific cumulative incidence function: A flexible parametric regression modelling approach" (2018) Statistics in Medicine, 37 (1), pp. 82-97.

Alabas, O.A., Gale, C.P., Hall, M., Rutherford, M.J., Szummer, K., Lawesson, S.S., Alfredsson, J., Lindahl, B., Jernberg, T. "Sex differences in treatments, relative survival, and excess mortality following acute myocardial infarction: National cohort study using the SWEDEHEART registry" (2017) Journal of the American Heart Association, 6 (12), art. no. e007123, .

Mozumder, S.I., Rutherford, M.J., Lambert, P.C. "A flexible parametric competing-risks model using a direct likelihood approach for the cause-specific cumulative incidence function" (2017) Stata Journal, 17 (2), art. no. st0482, pp. 462-489.

Andersson, T.M.-L., Rutherford, M.J., Humphreys, K. "Assessment of lead-time bias in estimates of relative survival for breast cancer" (2017) Cancer Epidemiology, 46, pp. 50-56.

Syriopoulou, E., Bower, H., Andersson, T.M.-L., Lambert, P.C., Rutherford, M.J. "Estimating the impact of a cancer diagnosis on life expectancy by socio-economic group for a range of cancer types in England" (2017) British Journal of Cancer, 117 (9), pp. 1419-1426.

Alabas, O.A., Hall, M., Dondo, T.B., Rutherford, M.J., Timmis, A.D., Batin, P.D., Deanfield, J.E., Hemingway, H., Gale, C.P. "Long-term excess mortality associated with diabetes following acute myocardial infarction: A population-based cohort study" (2016) Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 71 (1), pp. 25-32.

Alabas, O.A., Brogan, R.A., Hall, M., Almudarra, S., Rutherford, M.J., Dondo, T.B., Feltbower, R., Curzen, N., De Belder, M., Ludman, P., Gale, C.P., on behalf of the National Institute for Cardiovascular Outcomes Research "Determinants of excess mortality following unprotected left main stem percutaneous coronary intervention" (2016) Heart, 102 (16), pp. 1287-1295.

Lambert, P.C., Dickman, P.W., Rutherford, M.J. "Comparison of different approaches to estimating age standardized net survival" (2015) BMC Medical Research Methodology, 15 (1), art. no. 64, .

Rutherford, M.J. "Care needed in interpretation of cancer survival measures"(2015) The Lancet, 385 (9974), art. no. 62292, pp. 1162-1163.

Rutherford, M.J., Crowther, M.J., Lambert, P.C. "The use of restricted cubic splines to approximate complex hazard functions in the analysis of time-to-event data: a simulation study" (2015) Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 85 (4), pp. 777-793.
Rutherford, M.J., Andersson, T.M.-L., Møller, H., Lambert, P.C. "Understanding the impact of socioeconomic differences in breast cancer survival in England and Wales: Avoidable deaths and potential gain in expectation of life" (2015) Cancer Epidemiology, 39 (1), pp. 118-125.
Rutherford, M.J., Abel, G.A., Greenberg, D.C., Lambert, P.C., Lyratzopoulos, G. "The impact of eliminating age inequalities in stage at diagnosis on breast cancer survival for older women" (2015) British Journal of Cancer, 112, pp. S124-S128.
Rutherford, M.J., Ironmonger, L., Ormiston-Smith, N., Abel, G.A., Greenberg, D.C., Lyratzopoulos, G., Lambert, P.C. "Estimating the potential survival gains by eliminating socioeconomic and sex inequalities in stage at diagnosis of melanoma" (2015) British Journal of Cancer, 112, pp. S116-S123.

Lortet-Tieulent, J., Soerjomataram, I., Ferlay, J., Rutherford, M., Weiderpass, E., Bray, F. "International trends in lung cancer incidence by histological subtype: Adenocarcinoma stabilizing in men but still increasing in women" (2014) Lung Cancer, 84 (1), pp. 13-22.

Rutherford, M.J., Thompson, J.R., Lambert, P.C. "Projecting cancer incidence using age-period-cohort models incorporating restricted cubic splines" (2014) International Journal of Biostatistics, 8 (1), art. no. 1411, .

Schonfeld, S.J., McCormack, V., Rutherford, M.J., Schüz, J. "Regional variations in German mesothelioma mortality rates: 2000-2010" (2014) Cancer Causes and Control, 25 (5), pp. 615-624.

Rutherford, M.J., Hinchliffe, S.R., Abel, G.A., Lyratzopoulos, G., Lambert, P.C., Greenberg, D.C. "How much of the deprivation gap in cancer survival can be explained by variation in stage at diagnosis: An example from breast cancer in the East of England" (2013) International Journal of Cancer, 133 (9), pp. 2192-2200.

Dickman, P.W., Lambert, P.C., Coviello, E., Rutherford, M.J. "Estimating net survival in population-based cancer studies" (2013) International Journal of Cancer, 133 (2), pp. 519-521.

Rutherford, M.J., Møller, H., Lambert, P.C. "A comprehensive assessment of the impact of errors in the cancer registration process on 1-and 5-year relative survival estimates" (2013) British Journal of Cancer, 108 (3), pp. 691-698.
Hinchliffe, S.R., Rutherford, M.J., Crowther, M.J., Nelson, C.P., Lambert, P.C. "Should relative survival be used with lung cancer data?" (2012) British Journal of Cancer, 106 (11), pp. 1854-1859.
Rutherford, M.J., Dickman, P.W., Lambert, P.C. "Comparison of methods for calculating relative survival in population-based studies" (2012) Cancer Epidemiology, 36 (1), pp. 16-21.
Rutherford, M.J., Lambert, P.C., Thompson, J.R. "Age-period-cohort modeling" (2010) Stata Journal, 10 (4), pp. 606-627.

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