Publications

2015

2014

  • ‘Fundamentally Wrong: Market Pricing of Sovereigns and the Greek Financial Crises’ with H.D.Gibson and G.S.Tavlas, Journal of Macroeconomics 39 (2014) 405-419
  •  ‘A Note on Generalizing the Concept of Cointegration’ with P.A.V.B.Swamy and G.S.Tavlas, Macroeconomic Dynamics   doi:10.1017/S1365100513000928
  • Revisiting the Institutions-Growth Nexus in Developing Countries: The New Evidence’ With Mahyudin Ahmad, New Zealand Economic Papers 10.1080/00779954.2013.867795.
  • ‘Microproduction functions with unique coefficients and errors: A Reconsideration and respecification’ Macroeconomic Dynamics
  • ‘Inflation and business cycle convergence in the euro area: Empirical analysis using an unobserved component model’ with Sergio Lagoa, Open Economies Revue,
  • ‘Consumer Credit in an era of Financial Liberalization: An overreaction to repressed demand?’ with S.N. Brissimis and E.N. Garganas. Appled Economics. Volume 46, Issue 2 pp. 139-152 | DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2013.835482

 

2013

  • ‘Measuring Currency Pressures: The Cases of the Japanese Yen, the Chinese Yuan, and the U.K. Pound’ with G.S. Tavlas. P.A.V.B. Swamy and A. Kengagaliev, Journal of The Japanese and International Economies. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2013.04.001
  • Can Trust Explain Social Capital Effect on Property Rights and Growth?’With Mahyudin Ahmad Procedia Economics and Finance Volume 7, 2013, Pages 55–64 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(13)00218-9
  • ‘Small Area Estimation with Correctly Specified Linking Models’ withP.A.V.B. Swamy J.S.Mehta and G.S.Tavlas, in ‘Recent Advances in Estimating Nonlinear Models’ Eds Jun Ma and Mark Wohar, Springer DOI 978-1-461408060-0
  • ‘Is the relationship Between Prices and Exchange Rates Homogeneous’ with G Hondyoiannis, A. Kenjegaliev, P.A.V.B. Swamy and G.S. Tavlas Journal of International Money and Finance,  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.06.014
  • ‘Consumer Credit in an era of Financial Liberalization: An overreaction to repressed demand?’ with S.N. Brissimis and E.N. Garganas. Appled Economics. Volume 46, Issue 2 pp. 139-152 | DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2013.835482
  • ‘Limited Information Minimal State Variable Learning in a Medium-scale Multi-Country Model’ with A. Dieppe, A. Gonzalez Pandiella and A. Willman, Economic Modelling
  • ‘The forward rate premium puzzle: A case of misspecification?’ with A kengagaliev, G.S. Tavlas and P.A.V.B.Swamy, Studies in non-linear dynamics and Econometrics, 3, 265-280. DOI: 10.1515/snde-2013-0009

2012

  • ‘The Debate about the Revived Bretton-Woods Regime: A Survey and Extension of the Literature’ with G.S.Tavlas, Journal of Economic Surveys, 13 MAR 2012 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-6419.2011.00708.x
  • ‘Inflation Convergence in Europe’ with B.Becker  in,  E.G.Carayannis and G.M.Korres (eds) European Socio-Economic Integration, Springer, New York.
  • ‘Generalized cointegration: a new concept with an application to health expenditure and health outcomes’ with PAVB Swamy and G.S. Tavlas. 10.1007/s00181-011-0483-y Empirical Economics
  • ‘Do R&D strategies in high-tech sectors differ from those in low-tech sectors? An alternative approach to testing the pooling assumption’ with Bettina Becker, Economic Change and Restructuring, DOI 10.1007/s10644-012-9122-7

2011

  • Spatial panel data analysis with feasible GLS techniques: An application to the Chinese real exchange rate. Economic Modelling. With  Guo, Q. (2011).
  • ‘The Greek Financial Crises: Growing Imbalances and Soverign Spreads’ with H.D. Gibson and G.S.Tavlas,  Journal of International Money and Finance, Forthcoming
  • ‘Measurement of Causal Effects’ with P.A.V.B. Swamy, Economic Change and restructuring, DOI: 10.1007/s10644-011-9113-0
  • ‘Financial Crises, Effective Policy Rules and Bounded Rationality in a newKeynesian Framework’ with Ali J. Al-Eyd, Economic Change and Restructuring, DOI 10.1007/s10644-011-9108-x
  • ‘Introduction to the special issue in honour of Wojciech Charemza’ with Dan Ladley, Economic Change and Restructuring, DOI: 10.1007/s10644-011-9110-3
  • ‘Breton Woods Systems, old and new, and the rotation of exchange rate regimes’ with G. Hondroyanis, PAVB Swamy and G. Tavlas, The Manchester School march 79, 2 pp
  • “The Small Sample Properties of Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: A Monte Carlo Investigation” with Eugenie Garganas, International Journal of Finance and Economics,   DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.422

 

2010

  • "The Small Sample Properties of Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: A Monte Carlo Investigation” with Eugenie Garganas, International Journal of Finance and Economics,   DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.422
  • "Estimation of Parameters in the Presence of Model Misspecification and Measurement Error," with PAVB Swamy, G.Tavlas and G.Hondroyiannis, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.
  • "The Fisher Effect Puzzle: A Case of Non-Linear Relationship?” with G.Hondroyianis, P.A.V.B. Swmay and George S. Tavlas. Open Economies Review   doi 10.1007/s11079-009-9157-1

2009

  • "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Lagged Inflation: A Case of Spurious Correlation?" Southern Economic Journal
  • "A New Look at Economic Convergence in Europe: A Common Factor Approach’ International Journal of Finance and Economics’ vol 14,1, 85-97, doi 10.1002/ijfe.364

2008

  • "A comparison between tests for changes in the adjustment coefficients in cointegrated systems’, Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 78, 1, 1-17. with Barassi, M.R., Caporale, G.M.
  • "Recent Development in Density Forecasting’ with James Mitchel in Palgrave Handbook of Economics vol II edited T. Mills and K.D. Patterson
  • "Foreign Direct Investment in R&D and Exchange Rate Uncertainty" with Bettina Becker, accepted in the Open Economies Review

2006

  • Optimal Combinations of Density Forecasts, with J. Mitchell, International Journal of Forecasting
  • Density Forecasts, with James Mitchell, forthcoming in the Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, volume 2, edited by T.C. Mills and K. Patterson

2005

Evaluating, Comparing and Combining density forecasts using the KLIC with an application to the Bank of England and NIESR “fan” charts of Inflation, with J. Mitchell, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, special issue,  vol 67, 995-1033, 2005.

‘Fiscal Consolidation: An Exercise in the Methodology of Coordination’ with S.G.B. Henry, M. Chui and Guiglermo Caporale,, Journal of Economic Integration, 20, 1 1-25, awarded the Dae-Yang prize for the best paper of 2005 ($300).

“A Sequential test for Structural Breaks in the Causal Linkages between the G7 Short-term Interest Rates” with M. Barrassi and G. Caporale Open Economies Review, 16,107-133

“Interest Rate Linkages: A Kalman Filter Approach to Detecting Structural Change” with M. Barrassi and G. Caporale, Economic Modelling vol 22, no 2 pg 253-284.,

Expectations and the 1990 ERM crises’ Beeby M, Hall S.Henry S.G.B. and Marcet A.  Estudios Economia Applicada

Identifying The Wage Bargaining Process in Germany by Stephen G. Hall, Volume edited by Olivier Basedevant, IMF.

“Interes Rate Linkages; Identifying Structural Relations” Applied Financial Economics  with M. Barrassi and G. Caporale.

Older Publications

“Foreign Direct Investment and Exchange Rate Uncertainty in Imperfectly Competitive Industries” with R. Barrell and S.D. Gottschalk, in Reginal Growth and Economic Integration edited by G.M.Kores

“Modelling Volatility and its implications for European Integration”  in New Directions in Macromodelling edited by A, Welfe, Contributions to economic analysis, Elsevier

2003

“Testing For Common Cycles in Money, Nominal Income and Prices” with David Shepherd, Manchester School,

‘Evaluating the Gains to Co-operation in the G-3’ with Caporale G.M.,Chui M and S.G.B.Henry, Empirica, 30, 337-356

“Measuring the capital stock in Russia: An unobserved  component model” Economics of Planning, with O. Basdevant

“Analysing Exchange Rate Volatility around the August 1998 Russian Crisis” with O. Basedevant,  Journal of Policy Modelling

“SGB Henry: A Memoir and a Fesrschrift Essay” with Meghnad Desai, Economic Modelling., 20, 2,227-237.

‘Modelling the Euro-11 Economy: A Supply-Side approach’ with M. Beeby and S.G.B.Henry, in Macroeconometric Models and European Monetary Union, edited by Hall S. Heilerman U. and Pauly P.

2002

On the Identification of Cointegrated Systems in Small Samples: Practical Procedures with an Application to UK wages and Prices.’ With J. Greenslade and S.G.B.Henry, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 26, Issue 9,1517-1537, August

‘Foreign exchange market efficiency and cointegration’ with M.Ferre, Applied Financial Economics, 12, 2, feb, 131-141

“Modelling Economic Policy Responses with an application to the G3” with G.M. Caporale, M. Chui and S.G.B. Henry, Annales D’Economie et de Statistique, vol67-68 415-434

“Testing Causality Between Team Performance and Payroll:The Case of Major League Baseball and English Soccer” with S. Symanski and A. Zimbalist, Journal of Sports Economics, May 2002, vol 3 No 2,134-149.

“Testing for Common Features in the European Union” with David Shepherd and Hong Bai, in Economic Integration: Limits and Prospects, (ed)George Bitros and George Korres, Macmillan.

"The Determination of Wage and Price Inflation in Greece: An Application of Modern Cointegration Techniques" with N. Zonzilos edit by R.C.Bryant, N.C.Garganas and G. Tavlas, ‘Greece’s Economic Performance and Prospects’from the Bank of Greece and the Brooking Institute

 2001

“Coordination and price shocks: An empirical analysis” with G.Caporale, M.Chui and S.G.B.Henry, Economic Modelling, 18, 4, 569-585

“Prospects for the Euro: why has it been so weak”, with S.G.B. Henry, Economic Outlook, 26, 1, 11-16.

“Creating High frequency national Accounts: A Monte Carlo Study” with Harry Liu, Journal of Forecasting 20 pg 441-449.

‘A Non-Parametric Approach to Pricing and Hedging Derivative Securities with an Application to LIFFE Data’ with J.A. Barria,  Computational Economics,

"Irreducibility and Structural Cointegrating Relations: An application to the G7 Long Term interest rates" with M.R.Barrassi G.Maria Caporale International Journal of Finance and Economics vol 6, pp 127-138

 “Why has the Euro Been so Low”, with S.G.B.Henry, Economic Outlook.

2000

`Unemployement and the Capital Stock: A dynamic structural model of the UK supply side’, with James Nixon, Economic Modelling, 17 (2000) 415-437.

`Modelling Economies in Transition: An Introduction’ with G. Mizon and A. Welfe, Economic Modelling , 17 (2000) 339-357.

`The Independence of the Bank of England: An Update’ with S.G.B. Henry, Economic Outlook, 24, 2, 5-12.

“Tax is the Key to a Lower Pound” with S.G.B.Henry, Financial Times, 18.5.2000.

“Unemployment, The Natural Rate and Structural Change” with J.F.Greenslade, S.g.B. Henry and J. Nixon, in  Holly S. and Weale M. (eds), Econometric Modelling, Techniques and Applications, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

“What convergence Really Means” Financial Times 5/7/2000.

1999

Detecting Periodically Collapsing Bubbles: A Markov-Switching Unit Root Test’ with Z. Psaradakis and M. Sola, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 14, 143-154.

`A Principal Components Analysis of Common Stochastic Trends in Heterogeneous Panel Data: Some Monte Carlo Evidence’ with S. Lazarova and G. Urga, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 1, 1999, 751-769.

“Stylised Facts of the Business Cycle Revisited: A Structural Modelling Approach.” With Laurence Boone, International Journal of Finance and Economics, Vol. 14 No 3.

`Signal Extraction and Estimation of a Trend: A Monte Carlo Study’ with Laurence Boone, Journal of Forecasting, 18, 129-137.

`Examining the first stages of Market Performance: A test for evolving market efficiency’ with Anna Zalewska-Mitura, Economics Letters 64 (1999), 1-12.

`Shock Hunting: The relative importance of industry-specific, Region Specific and Aggregate Shocks in the OECD Countries’ with M. Funke and R Ruhwedel, The Manchester School, 67 (supplement),49-65.

`Central Bank Independence and Co-ordinating Monetary and Fiscal Policy’ with SGB Henry and James Nixon, Economic Outlook 23,2, 7-14.

`New Developments in the Analysis of Panel Data sets’ with Giovani Urga, in the Current state of Business Disciplines, Vol. 2, section 28 editor Shri Bhagwan Dahiya, isbn 81-7600-051-5, spellbound publications.

`Modifying the Rational Expectations Assumption in a large World Model’ with Steven Symanski, in Hughes-Hallett A. and McAdam P. (eds) `Analysis in Macroeconomic Modelling’ Kluwer Academic Publishers, Massachusetts, 1999.

1998

`Modelling and Forecasting UK Public Finances’, with A Sentence and J O’Sullivan Fiscal Studies 19,1, February, p63-81.

`The Value of International Cooperation: Optimising behaviour in Climate Change Negotiations’ with Clare Smith, International Journal of Global Energy Issues, vol 10, Nos 2-4, pp 238-253.

`Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply in the UK regions’ with Michael Funke, Journal of Economic Studies, 25, 4, 260-276.

`A Dynamic Approach to Structural Modelling; A Comment on Tiao et al.’ Statistica Sinica vol 8 No 4, 1998

“The Relationship Between Money and Prices: An Econometric Appraisal Based on Cointegration and Caysality’ with M.Funke and M.Beeby, in Heji C., Hans S., Hanzon B. and Praagman K. (eds) System Dynamics in Economic and Financial Models, John Wiley Series in Financial Economics and Quantitative analysis, Chichester.

`Modelling Economic Policy Responses’, in Macromodels97 eds, Gajda J B and Welfe A, ISBN 83-86840-55-2, Absolwent, Lodz

`Is The Bundesbank different from other central Banks?’ with Michael Funke, in Hickman and Klein (eds) Link Proceedings 1991-1992

`The Degree of Convergence in the EMS’ with Robertson D and Wickens M R., Hickman and Klein (eds) Link Proceedings 1991-1992

`Modelling Wages and the Supply side of the UK Economy’ with James Nixon, , in Macromodels97 eds, Gajda J B and Welfe A, ISBN 83-86840-55-2, Absolwent, Lodz

`The treatment of expectations effects in large Scale Models’, Hickman and Klein (eds) Link Proceedings 1991-1992

1997

`Cointegration and Changes in Regime: The Japanese Consumption Function’ with Sola M and Psaradakis Z., Journal of Applied Econometrics., 12, 151-168.

`Stabilizing Energy Related CO2 Emissions for India’ with Sujata Gupta, Energy Economics, 19, 125-150.

`E- Equilibria and Adaptive Expectations: Output and Inflation in the LBS Model’ with Garratt A.  Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol 21, no 7, pg 1149-1173 1997.

`Switching Error Correction Models of House Prices in the UK’ with Sola M. and Psaradakis Z. Economic Modelling

`Empirical Properties of the Black Market Zloty/Dollar Exchange rate, 1955-1990' International Journal of Finance and Economics,  with M. Funke and M. Sola.Vol 2 No.1, p29-38.

Macroeconomic Modelling: A Perspective, in Allen C and  Hall S.(eds) Macroeconomic Modelling in a changing World; Towards a common approach, John Wiley, Chichester

`The Output Gap and Inflation in Greece’, with N. Zonzolus, Bank of Greece Quarterly Bulletin, 3, 97, p 51-63, March

`Learning About Monetary Union: An analysis of Boundedly Rational Learning in European Labor Markets’ with R. Barrell, G. Caporale and A.Garratt, in Journal of Policy Modelling, 19, 5, 469-489.

`Measuring Economic Convergence’ with D. Robertson and M.R.Wickens,, International Journal of Finance and Economics, vol 2, No 2, 131-143, May, 1997

`Convergence and Common Cycles in the European Union’ Economic Issues, 2,2,59-72, with Hong Bai and D. Sheperd.

Stockbuilding Risk and Forward Lookiong Behaviour of the Firm, with Bai H. and Whitley J., in Allen C and  Hall S.(eds) Macroeconomic Modelling in a changing World; Towards a common approach, John Wiley, Chichester

`The Relationship Between Money  and Prices: An Econometric Appraisal Based on Cointegration and Causality’ with M. Funke and M.Beeby, in `System Dynamics in Economic and Financial Models, eds Heij C, Schumacher J, Hanzon B and Praagman C, John Wiley.

`Modelling exchange rates in a transition economy: Empirical evidence for efficient markets’ with Malinka Koparanova. in Koparanova (ed) Emerging capital markets in a transitional environment, Commercial and advertising publishing house, Sofia

UK Fiscal Policy in the Medium Term, with O’Sullivan J and Sentance A., in Allen C and  Hall S.(eds) Macroeconomic Modelling in a changing World; Towards a common approach, John Wiley, Chichester

`Modelling Emerging Financial Markets and their approach to market efficiency’ with Rebecca Emerson and Anna Zalewska-Mitura,. in Koparanova (ed) Emerging capital markets in a transitional environment, Commercial and advertising publishing house, Sofia

Controlling Inflation: Modelling Monetary Policy in the 1990s, with Nixon J., in Allen C and  Hall S.(eds) Macroeconomic Modelling in a changing World; Towards a common approach, John Wiley, Chichester

Modelling Economies in Transition, with O’Sullivan J. in Allen C and  Hall S.(eds) Macroeconomic Modelling in a changing World; Towards a common approach, John Wiley, Chichester

1996

Modelling Economies Subject to Structural Change: The case of Germany’ with J.V. Greenslade, Economic Modelling,  13, 4 ,545-560, 1996,

`Endogenous Technical Progress in Fossil Fuel Demand: The Case of France’ with L Boone and D Kemball-Cook, Journal of Policy Modelling 18(2), 141-155, 1996

`Carbon Abatement Costs: An Integrated Approach for India’ with S. Gupta, Environmental and Development Economics,  1996, 1, 1. 41-63.

`Structural Change and Economic Behaviour; The Case of UK Exports’ with G. Urga and J. Whitley,  Economic Issues, 1, 1, 1-12, 1996

Measuring Underlying Economic Activity' Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. II p 135-151. with A Garratt

`The Macroeconomics of the Peace Dividend in the UK’, with Hong Bai, James Nixon and Ron Smith, in Gleditsch N.P., Bjerkholt O., Cappelen A., Smith R.P. and Dunne J.P. `The Peace Dividend, North Holland, Amsterdam, 1996.

`Structural breaks and GARCH Modelling’ with M.Sola, in M. Gilli(ed) Computational Economic Systems; Models, Methods and Econometrics, Kluwer, 1996, The Netherlands.

1995`Macroeconomics and a bit more Reality' Economic Journal

`The Interface between policy Makers, Markets and Modellers in the Design of Economic Policy: an Intermodel Comparison' Economic Journal  with J Bray, A Kuleshov, J nixon and P Westaway.

`Endogenous Technical Progress in Fossil Fuel Demand: The Case of France', The Journal of Policy Modelling with Laurence Boone

`Model Consistent Learning and Regime Switching in the London Business School Model' Economic Modelling,  vol 12, no.2 , p87-97, 1995.

`Price and quantity Responses to Cost and Demand Shocks' with Paul Geroski, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 57, 2, May.

`Econometric Modelling of International Carbon Tax Regimes' with C. Smith and N. Mabey, Energy Economics, forthcoming

‘A proposed framework for Monetary Policy’ with A. Garratt, Applied Economic Letters  vol 2 p 135-138.

`Modelling Economies in Transition' in proceedings of Macromodels 94, Committee of Statistics and Econometrics, Polish Academy of Science.

`Endogenous technological progress in Fossil Fuel Demand' with L. Boone, C. Smith and D. Kemball-Cook, in T. Barker, P. Ekins and N. Johnstone (eds) Global Warming and Energy Demand, Routledge, London, 1995 .

`Modelling and Forecasting Structural Change; The Case of Romania' with John O'Sullivan, Proceedngs of the UN LINK meeting in Salamanca, ed P Pauly.

`Model Consistent Learning: Some Recent Developments' with A Garratt, in Schoonbeek L., Sterken E. and Kuipers S.K. (eds) Methods and Applications of Economic Dynamics, North Holland, Elsevier, Amsterdam

1994

`Forecasting Economies in Transition; The Case of Romania' with John O'Sullivan, Forthcoming in The Journal of Economic Planning 1994, 27, 175-184 .

`Robust Optimal Decisions With Stochastic Nonlinear Economic Systems' with R Becker and B Rustem, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1994. 18, 1, 125-148.

`Rational Bubbles During Poland's Hyperinflation: Implications and Empirical Evidence' with M. Funke and M. Sola, European Economic Review,.1994,38,5,may,1257-1276

`Is The Bundesbank different from other Central Banks: An Econometric Appraisal' with M Funke, Empirical Economics, 1994, 19, 691-707 reprinted in Klein L and Guvenen O.,

`The Relevance of P-Star Analysis to UK Monetary Policy' with A. Milne, The Economic Journal, May 1994, 424, 104, 597-605.

`A Comparison of Forecasts' with A. Burrell, in Economic Outlook, February 1994.

`A Survey of Univariate Forecasting Techniques' in Hall, S.G.(ed) Applied Economic Forecasting Techniques, forthcoming 1993, Simon and Schuster.

`A survey of the treatment of expectations in Forecasting Models' with David Currie, in Hall, S.G. (ed) Applied Economic Forecasting Techniques. Forthcoming 1993, Simon and Schuster.

`Measuring and Forecasting Underlying Economic Activity' with A Garratt, in Hall, S.G.(ed) Applied Economic Forecasting Techniques, 1993, Simon and Schuster.

`Expectations Learning and Empirical Macroeconomic Models' with David Currie, International Journal of Systems Science, 25,2.

`The New London Business School Model of the UK Economy' with Chris Allen and James Nixon, Economic Outlook, 18,9,244-32.

`Learning About Monetary Union: An Analysis of Boundedly Rational Learning in European Labour Markets' with Barrell R., Caporale G.M., and Garratt A. in Hall, S.G. (ed) Applied Economic Forecasting Techniques, forthcoming 1993, Simon and Schuster.

`Measuring Economic Convergence' with Robertson D. and Wickens M.R., in Klein L. and Guvenen O. (eds), forthcoming.

1993

`News Effects in a High Frequency Model of the Sterling Effective Exchange Rate' with C A E Goodhart, S G B Henry and B Pesaran, Journal of Applied Econometrics 1993,8,1-13 reprinted in Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos in Econometrics, ed Pesaran and Potter, John Wiley.

`Modelling the Sterling Effective Exchange Rate using Expectations and Learning', Bank of England Discussion paper No.33. 1990. The Manchester School 1993.

`The UK Macromodelling Tradition: Expectations and Learning' in S Holly (ed) Money Inflation and Employment: Essays in Honour of James Ball, Edward Elgar. with D. Currie.

`A Note on the Estimation of GARCH-M Models Using The Kalman Filter', Bank of England Discussion Paper No 32, 1990.

`An Investigation of the Effects of Funding on the Slope of the Yield Curve' with Don Egginton, in Jurgen Kaehler (ed) Financial Market Econometrics 1993.

`Modelling Structural Change Using The Kalman Filter', CEF Discussion Paper No 9-92, Economics Of Planning No 26, pp 1-13, 1993.

`Consistent Expectations and Learning in Large Scale Macroeconometric Models' with A Garratt and D Currie, in S. Honkapohja and M Ingberg (ed) Macroeconometric Modelling and Policy Implications, Volume in honour of Pertti Kukkonen, North Holland, 1993.

`UK Policies, Non-Price Competitiveness, and Convergence to an EMU - An Inter-Model Comparison' with J D Whitley, J Bray, P Westaway and G Meen, ESRC Macro modelling Bureau Discussion Paper No.28.

`A comparison of UK forecasts of GDP growth' Economic Forecasts, North Holland.

1992

`Testing a Discreet Switching Disequilibrium Model of the UK Labour Market' with S.G.B. Henry and M. Pemberton, Bank of England Discussion Paper No.  28, Journal of Applied Econometrics 1992 vol 7, pp 83-91.

`An Empirical Study of Recent Trends in World Bond Markets' with David Miles, CEF discussion paper No. 12-91, forthcoming in Oxford Economic Papers, 1992, 44, 599-625.

`A System  Approach to the Relationship Between Consumption and Wealth' with K D Patterson, University of Reading Discussion Paper in Quantitative Economics and Computing, No. 1, Applied Economics 1992, 24, 1165-1171.

`Expectations and Learning in Economic Models' with A Garratt, Economic Outlook, October 1992.

`A Proposed Framework for Monetary Policy' with A Garratt, Economic Outlook October 1992.

`Measuring European Convergence' with M. Wickens and, D. Robertson, The Manchester School, 1992.                                                                                                                                       1991

`Sterlings Relationship with the Dollar and The Deutschemark 1976-1989' with A G Haldane, Bank of England Discussion Paper No.36, 1990 Economic Journal vol. 101, no. 406 May 1991.

`Monitoring Bank Risk: A Market Based Approach' with D. Miles, in M.P.Taylor (ed) Money and Financial Markets, Basil Blakwell, Oxford, 1991.

`The Effect of Varying Length VAR Models on the Maximum Likelihood Estimates of Cointegrating Vectors', Scottish Journal of Political Economy, August 1991.

`Cointegration in Recursive Systems' with James Davidson, Economic Journal, Vol. 101, No.405, March 1991.

`An Application of The Stochastic GARCH in Mean Model to Risk Premia in The London Metal Exchange', The Manchester School, vol. LIX, 1991.

`Modelling Broad and narrow money: A Study Using Cointegration' with M Brookes, S G B Henry and G Hoggarth, in M P T  Taylor (ed) Money and Financial Markets, Basil Blackwell, Oxford, 1991.

`Money as a potential Anchor for the Price Level: A critique of the P-star Approach' with C Allen, Economic Outlook, vol 15 no. 5, Feb 1991.

`Optimal Control of Stochastic Non-Linear Models' with M J Stephenson, in N. Christodoulakis (ed) Dynamic Modelling and Control of National Economies, Pergamon Press, Oxford 1991.

`Economic Convergence in Europe' with M. Wickens, International Economic Outlook, vol. 1,no. 2, 1991.

1990

`Manufacturing Stocks; Expectations, Risk and Cointegration' with T.S. Callen and S.G.B. Henry Bank of England Discussion Paper No.42. Presented at the  European Meeting of the Econometric Society 1989, Munich. Economic Journal, vol. 100, no. 402, 1990.

`Modelling Risk Premia in Commodity Forward Prices: Some Evidence from the  London Metal Exchange.' with M.P. Taylor. Presented at the Second European Futures Research Symposium, Paris. The Review of Futures Markets, 1990.

`An Algorithm for the Solution of Stochastic Optimal Control Problems for Large Non-Linear Econometric Models' with M.J. Stephenson, Journal of Applied  Econometrics, 1990.

`Measuring The Risk of Financial Institutions' Portfolios: Some Suggestions for  Alternative Techniques Using Stock Prices' with D.K. Miles L.S.E.  Financial Markets Group Working Paper and Bank of England Discussion Paper No 33, in Issues in Economic and Financial Modelling ed K. Patterson and S G B Henry, Chapman and Hall, 1990.

`Cointegration in Recursive Systems: The Structure of Wage and Price Determination in the United Kingdom' with James Davidson, presented at the Federal Reserve Board, California STICERD discussion paper no EM/89/191 LSE.

`Optimal Control of Stochastic Non-linear Models' with M. J. Stephenson,  presented at the E.S.R.C. Macro-modelling Bureau summer meeting 1988, Bank of England Discussion Paper No.18, in Issues in Economic and Financial Modelling ed K. Patterson and S G B Henry Chapman and Hall, 1990.

`A Multivariate GARCH in Mean Estimation of The Capital Asset Pricing Model' with D.K. Miles and M.P. Taylor, presented at the meeting of the Money Study Group, Oxford 1988, LSE Financial Markets Group Discussion Paper No. Bank of England discussion paper No 19, in Issues in Economic and Financial Modelling' ed K. Patterson and S G B Henry, Chapman and Hall, 1990.

`Stockbuilding and liquidity' with T.S. Callen and S.G.B. Henry in Issues in  Economic and Financial Modelling ed K.Patterson and S G B Henry, Chapman and Hall, 1990.

`The Long Run Determination of The U.K. Monetary Aggregates' with  S.G.B. Henry and J.B. Wilcox. Bank of England discussion paper No 41, in Issues in  Economics and Financial Modelling ed K. Patterson and S G B Henry,  Chapman and Hall, 1990.

`Robust Optimal Control of Stochastic Nonlinear Economic Systems' with R Becker and B Rustem, PROPE Discussion paper No 115, 1990.

1989

`The UK Labour Market; Expectations and Disequilibrium' with S G B Henry,  A Markandya and M Pemberton, Applied Economics vol 21 no.11, 1989.

`An Investigation of the Long Run Properties of Aggregate Non-Durable Consumers Expenditure in the UK' with A. Drobny presented at the conference  on `Cointegration and Seasonality' 1987 Manchester University. NIESR  Discussion Paper No.113, The Economic Journal, 1989, June, vol.99, no. 396.

`Modelling Asset Prices With Time Varying Betas: Some Evidence From The London Stock Exchange' with D.K. Miles and M.P.Taylor CUBS Centre for Banking and International Finance Discussion Paper No.64 1988, The Manchester School, 1989, vol LVII No.4, December.

`Comment On' Wealth Targets, Exchange Rate Targets and Macroeconomic  Policy' by Blake, Vines and Weale in Britton (ed) Policy Making with Macroeconomic Models, Gower, 1989.

`Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Cointegrating Vectors: An Example of the Johansen Procedure', Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1989.

1988

`Rationality and Siegels' Paradox, The Importance of Coherency in Expectations',  Applied Economics, 1988, vol 20 No.11 pp. 1533-1541.

`Analysing Unstable Policy Prescriptions in Linear Difference Models with  Rational Expectations' with G.F. Kennally, Bulletin of Economic Research, No. 40/3, 1988, pp 217-225.

`The UK Labour Market: A Disequilibrium Approach' with S.G.B Henry in  Modelling the UK Labour Market ed M. Beenstock, Chapman & Hall, 1988.

1987

`Wage Models' with S.G.B. Henry, National Institute Economic Review, no. 119 Feb., 1987.

`The UK Labour Market: Equilibrium or Disequilibrium' with S.G.B. Henry A Markandya and M Pemberton, Lloyds Bank Review, 1987, no.2.

`Analysing Economic Behaviour with a Model Containing Consistent Expectations',  National Institute Review, 1987, January.

`Some Long-Run Features of Dynamic Time Series Models: The Implications of Cointegration' with A. Drobny presented at the European Meeting of the  Econometric Society 1987 at Copenhagen, NIESR Discussion Paper No. 111.

`Forecasting with A Large Macro Model Incorporating Pervasive Consistent Expectations: NIESR Model 8' Large Scale Systems Theory and Applications,  vol. 13, p 145-155, 1987.

`An Investigation of Time inconsistency and Optimal Policy Formulation in the Presence of Rational Expectations using The  National Institute Model 7' NIESR discussion paper No.71. Applied Economics, vol 19 no 9, 1987 pp 1175-1186.

`A Forward Looking Model of The Exchange Rate' NIESR discussion paper No. 91, Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol 2 no.1, 1987.

`Employment and Stockbuilding: some empirical results of a joint model' with S.G.B. Henry and S. Wren-Lewis,  NIESR discussion paper No. 99.

`An Empirical Model of the Exchange Rate Incorporating Rational Expectations'  in Exchange Rates and the Open Economy (ed) K.A.Chrystal and R.Sedgwick,  Wheatsheaf-St. Martin's Press, 1987.

1986

`Forecasting Employment, The Role of Forward-Looking Behaviour' with S.G.B. Henry, S. Wren Lewis and J. Payne, International Journal of Forecasting, No.2, 1986, 435-445.

`A Stock/Flow Model of the Determination of the UK Effective Exchange Rate' with D. Currie, Presented at the CEPR conference on Exchange Rate Modelling  1986.  In Taylor and Mcdonald (ed) Exchange Rates.

`Disequilibrium Models with Rational Expectations: an Application to the UK Labour Market' with  S.G.B. Henry, A. Markandya and M. Pemberton. Economics Letters, 1986.

`Model Solution Techniques and the Non-Existence of a well defined Equilibrium Solution' with G.F. Kennally NIESR discussion paper No.110.

`An application of the Granger and Engle Two-Step Estimation Technique to UK Aggregate Wage Data', NIESR discussion paper No.109, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1986, Vol. 48 No. 3.

`The Exchange Rate and The Balance of Payments' with D. Currie, National  Institute Economic Review, Feb., 1986.

`Consistent Simulations and The National Institute Model 8' with R. Herbert  National Institute Economic Review, Feb., 1986.

`Oil Prices and The Economy' with S.G.B. Henry and R. Herbert National  Institute Economic Review, May, 1986.

`A Disequilibrium Model of the UK labour Market Incorporating Rational  Expectations' with S.G.B Henry, A Markandya and M. Pemberton NIESR discussion paper No.102.

`Time Inconsistency and Optimal Policy Formulation in the Presence of Rational  Expectations', Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1986.

`Forecasting with an Econometric Model: Some recent Results Using the  National Institute Model' with S.G.B Henry and C.B. Johns , Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol.1, 1986.

`Output Expectations and Disequilibrium Adjustment in the company Sector: A short summary of some recent research at the National Institute' with S. Wren-Lewis NIESR discussion paper No.97.

`The Importance of Non-Linearities in Large Forecasting Models with Stochastic  Error Processes', NIESR discussion paper No. 74, Journal of Forecasting, vol 5 no 4, 1986.

`Manufacturing Stocks and Forward Looking Expectations in the U.K.' with S.G.B Henry and S. Wren-Lewis,  NIESR discussion paper No. 64, Economica, Nov 1986.

`The Application of Stochastic Simulation Techniques to the National Institute  Model 7' NIESR discussion paper No.65, The Manchester School, 1986.

`The Use of Prior Regressions in Error Correction Models' with S.J. Brookes, Economic Letters, vol. 20, 1986.

`Estimating The Uncertainty of the Simulation Properties of Large Non-linear Econometric Models' NIESR discussion paper No. 95, Applied Economics, vol. 18 No. 9, 1986.

`A dynamic Econometric Model of the UK with Rational Expectations' with S.G.B. Henry, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1986.

1985

`Rational Expectations in an Econometric Model: NIESR Model 8' with S.G.B.  Henry, National Institute Economic Review, November, 1985.

`Forecasting with a Rational Expectations Model of the UK: A Comment on the Mathews Paper' with S.G.B. Henry and C.B. Johns, Oxford Bulletin of  Economics and Statistics, vol. 47, No.4, 1985.

`Nimodel: a users guide', with S.J. Brookes, H. Feisal and C. Johns, NIESR 1985.

`Employment and Average Hours in Manufacturing'with S.G.B. Henry, J. Payne and S. Wren-Lewis NIESR discussion paper No. 80, The British Review of Economic Issues, 1985.

`An Improved Solution Technique for Large Economic Models with Consistent Expectations', System and Control Letters, 1985, May vol 5.

`On the Solution of Large Economic Models with Consistent Expectations' Bulletin of Economic Research, May 1985.

`The Use of Stochastic Simulation in Assessing the Uncertainty of Model Simulation Properties', Report Commissioned by HM Treasury.

1984

`Calculating the Confidence Intervals of the National Institutes Model 7', National Institute Economic Revue, No. 109, 1984.

`Model Ordering and The Problem Of Multiple Solutions', NIESR discussion paper No. 68.

`On the Solution of High Order Symmetric Difference Equations', Oxford Bulletin Of Economics and Statistics, February 1984.

1983

`The Economic Effects Of North Sea Oil' with Sir Fred Atkinson and S.J. Brooks,  National Institute Economic Review, No.104, 1983.

`Money and the Walrasian Utility Function' Oxford Economic Papers, No. 2, 1983.

`The Exchange Rate' NIESR discussion paper No. 57, 1983. Subsequently in  A.J.C  Britton (ed) Employment, Output and Inflation, The National Institute  Model of the British Economy, Heineman, 1983.

`Wages and Prices' with S.G.B Henry and C. Trinder in Britton (ed) Employment Output and Inflation, Heineman, 1983.

`North Sea Oil' in Britton (ed) Employment Output and Inflation, Heineman, 1983.

1982

`Money And The Economics of Leon Walras', Scottish Journal of Political Economy, vol.29 No.3, 1982.

1980

`Energy Crisis: Fact or Fiction ?' Management Today, 1980.

`The fundamental cause of non-Walrasian equilibria' Imperial College discussion paper no.2, 1980.

`Injecting North Sea Oil revenues into the UK macroeconomic system' with H. Motamen, Imperial College discussion paper, No.3, 1980. Subsequently published  in Energy Economics, 1981.

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